Real estate in Bulgaria: results of 2020, trends and forecasts for 2021

The question of what will happen to the Bulgarian real-estate market in 2021 is a concern for realtors, developers and investors. In the current situation it is difficult to make any forecasts, since everything is subject to how the world develops.

Current information on the Bulgarian real-estate market

The number of real-estate investments and sales in Bulgaria in September amounted to 18,142, which is 13% more than in the same month last year, when 16,065 transactions were made. This is evidenced by data from the Registration Agency.

September is the first month since the beginning of the COVID crisis in which market activity is higher than a year ago. This came after three months of double-digit declines, followed by a quarter that caught up with 2019 volumes.

Over the first nine months of 2020 a total of 113,265 transactions were registered in the country, which is 23% fewer than the 147,609 sales in the same period of 2019. In September growth was observed in each of the country's six major cities.

Overall, according to real-estate market analysis, the six major cities accounted for 34.4% of property sales in the country in September, compared with 33.6% in the same month a year earlier. This means that the market this season is more active than at the same time last year.

During the three months of lockdown – March, April and May – activity in the real-estate market fell on average by 38% compared with the level of the previous year. The worst was April, when an annual collapse of 55% amounted to 7,678 transactions across the country. In March the decline was 27.5%, to 11,808 transactions; in May it was 30.7%, to 11,270 transactions.

In the summer months – June, July and August – activity begins to recover. Transactions were on average 0.5% lower than a year earlier. In June, with 18,955 sales, the market was 0.96% below the result of the same month in 2019. July was the strongest summer month for the Bulgarian real-estate market, with an increase of 2.6% to 18,204 transactions. In August transactions decreased by 4.3% year-on-year to 17,802 transactions.

With a positive scenario and successful overcoming of the coronavirus crisis, one can expect an active market and stable price dynamics for real estate in Bulgaria.

Real-estate prices in Bulgaria in 2021

The outlook for prices and the real-estate market of Bulgaria next year depends on the actions of the European Central Bank. The market is likely to benefit from soft monetary policy in Europe, prices will remain stable and may even continue to rise.

The market is in very good shape, although many analysts expected it would experience a greater shock. The main reason is the banks. They have acted surprisingly attractively towards clients.

The coronavirus crisis is increasing interest in real estate in Bulgaria among Russians, Ukrainians, Israelis and Europeans – in residential houses and new-build properties. At the same time, supply still does not match the sharp change in demand – it is growing 2 to 2.5 times.

The trends and forecast of growth in individual towns and districts will be maintained!

Is it worth buying real estate in Bulgaria in 2021

Real estate has long been considered a way to balance an investment portfolio; it is favoured by pension funds and insurance companies looking for assets that combine the capital growth offered by shares with a bond-like secure income.

At a time when yields on government bonds are falling, around 15% of corporate bonds are declining, and dividends on shares are being deferred, investors crave the income that real estate can provide.

Expectations that global economic-stimulus measures may increase inflation in 2021 are likely to raise demand for real estate, which is a hedge against the impact of inflation on bonds and gold.

The Bulgaria Avenue company believes that today the most reliable investment is the purchase of real estate.

The coronavirus crisis has not led to new trends; rather, it has reinforced the existing ones.

Commercial real estate is undergoing a large and accelerated transformation, with retail space suffering the most and risking never recovering from the pandemic.

Where in Bulgaria is it best to buy an apartment in 2021

First of all, you need to determine the possibility of investment: how much are you planning to spend?

In which district? Does proximity to the sea, to major cities, the view, and orientation matter? In some cases it does, in others it does not – it depends on your goals.

How do you decide where to invest and where to buy a home, which in itself is also a good investment? Do you blindly trust family and friends? Do you make a decision based on feelings? How do you feel about making an informed decision that you have no doubts about, one that makes you feel good, sleep peacefully and be satisfied?

If you are planning to invest in urban real estate:

Today there are several reasons why most buyers prefer new construction:

• new and well-maintained common areas;
• the opportunity to purchase a parking space or a garage;
• neighbours from an identical social circle – young people with similar interests;
• a higher percentage of bank financing when using a mortgage loan and, accordingly, the need for a lower down-payment percentage on the part of the buyer.

If you are planning to invest in resort real estate: we warn you that when a property is very cheap and large discounts are offered, there are reasons for that.

The liquidity of real estate is the ratio of price, location and quality.

The Bulgaria Avenue company will help you make the right choice, will carry out a price analysis, will organise a familiarisation tour, and will suggest a location that combines liquidity, comfort and an attractive price. The property will bring you joy and pleasure.